A court desicion & maybe a change of plan for your's truly!

My other half and I were planning to take a trip to Bangkok this week, to do some shopping and generally get a change of scenery. I know it's an old joke about where do people who live by the seaside go for their holidays but I haven't been outside of Hua Hin since mid-March, when I last visited Bangkok. However, now that trip seems a little inadvisable.

You see, here in the 'Land of Smiles', those smiles are looking a little stressed in some quarters. A while back, the military-appointed government tried to ban and dissolve two major political parties, including (unsurprisingly) that of the deposed PM Thaksin. These parties, quite naturally, appealed against this move and later this week (on the 30th), Thailand's Constitution Tribunal is due to announce its decision. Now if they rule in favour of the government, there is almost certain to be some agitated disagreement by members of the public, especially as the government's poll ratings are pretty damn'd low. The Information and Communications Technology Ministry has already shut down as many as 17 websites for their support of the ousted prime minister, which shows how they might deal with any demonstrations. However, the parties concerned are preparing for such demonstrations, be they protests or celebrations, in some detail.

The main participant, Mr. Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party, has asked supporters to gather at its new headquarters rather than the court building, and is organising refreshments for supporters. The other party, the Democrats, have announced that party executives will pay homage at the statue of King Rama VII at Parliament on Wednesday morning before going to the Constitution Court. Not exactly Tienanmen Square but then again, we don't want tanks on the streets of Bangkok again, do we? Those who don't know the Thai way of doing things might get the wrong idea & start cancelling their trips to Thailand. If that was to happen, then the economy might slip and we might end up with what the old South Africans called the 'Laager Mentality', meaning that instead of thoughtfully reacting to foreign pressure, the ruling folk would just circle the wagons and resist. Not a good idea at all.

To show just how serious Wednesday's verdict is, even the sincerely revered Thai King has commented on it, which is not a common occurrence — His Majesty is far too wise to get involved with politics! The King described the verdict as something that would cause a lot of trouble no matter how it turns out. The King even cleverly commented on his constitutionally non-political role, using the gown which the judges concerned had just given him as a gift. He said "I can't say if there should be or there shouldn't be political parties, or whether parties should be dissolved or not. That's why I said the gown you gave me gave me trouble. It came with no power. Whether one will wear the gown or not, there will be no power." It's easy to see why he has remained so incredibly popular here for so long. To remain King in some troubled countries is tricky, but to remain the world's most venerated leader is a real achievement.

Whatever happens on Wednesday, life outside of central Bangkok will doubtless go on in the usual way. I do not expect to see extra troops or police on the streets of Hua Hin or hear of any businesses being closed. This is partly because the next day, Thursday (31st) is a holiday anyway, Visakha Bucha Day, which marks three important incidents in the life of Lord Buddha on the same day. For me, Tuesday is the big day this week, as that's when I go for my yearly medical check. In Tokyo, it was provided free by the local council but here, It's going to cost me about 2,500 baht — that's about £36, €53 or US$72, which isn't too bad, I suppose. What will the doctor tell me? Will I still be around to write the next Blog? Tune in to find out . . .

The Rainy Season's here -- but it's not all gloom & floods!

Well, here we go with another rainy season. As I arrived in Thailand during the rainy season, this will be the third such season I've experienced, and although the name might sound a bit off-putting, it shouldn't.

If you've read my postings from last year, you'll know that the rainy season in Thailand and the Japanese 'Tsuyu' are very different. Yes, the Japanese rainy season is much shorter, lasting from June until the middle of July, whereas our version lasts from mid-May until late October or mid-November. However, whereas grey skies and downpours are almost constant during the Japanese rainy season, the Thai equivalent is much gentler. Yes, some places do get flooded (usually due to bad or no preparation) and there are occasional landslides (often due to human misbehaviour, like deforesting or bad irrigation), but generally speaking, a rainy season day here in Hua Hin consists of a warm sunny morning, a cloudy & possibly threatening midday, with some often torrential rain pelting down later in the day.

It is also more comfortable at this time of year, as the temperatures fall from the hot season averages of the high 30s/low 40s to a more comfortable range of mid-20s to low 30s. Yes, it can and does get humid but believe me, Tokyo is worse. Humidity-wise, summer in Tokyo makes this place seem like the Sahara! OK, this town does have sea and mountain breezes to help keep things comfortable, and I'm sure that the humidity in Bangkok is a lot harder to bear. But that's true in most places. The hotter and more humid the weather, the less pleasant the cities become, that's international!

For non-residents, there are some big advantages for travelling during the rainy season. First off, the scenery is verdant green rather than dusty brown. This is especially true if you're heading south. My province, Prachuap Kirikhan, is one of the driest in the kingdom, and during the heat of March and April, the dust gets everywhere. My front lawn gets cracked soon after being watered and just taking the rubbish out is a tiring trek. However, come the rains and the waterfalls are fuller, the rice fields more as westerners expect, and the flowers a riot of colour. However, the main advantages must be fewer tourists, cheaper prices and less booked-out accommodation. Prices for hotels and resorts are much cheaper than in the early part of the year, and many places are less than 50% full, as uninformed tourists are scared away by the word 'rainy'. You can get some great discounts at this time, and enjoy a hotel that would be well outside your budget during the peak season.

When the rainy season finally ends, we'll have the peak cooler season. Now I know that for visitors from northern Europe, the cooler season is still warm. However, for us folks who've gone through the heat of a Thai spring, it can often feel a little too cool. OK, I won't be wearing gloves, scarf and jacket like many young Thais do at that time, but I might wear a long sleeved shirt now and again. I might even wear long trousers on my days off! However, don't let that fool you. What is usually called the 'cool season' is more accurately the cooler season. However, the prices charged by hotels, etc., at that time are certainly not 'cool', but that's another story. Right now, at 10.30 in the morning, I am basking in warm (28c/82f) sunshine, with clear blue skies over the sea. However, the clouds are moving in from Burma over the peak of Khao Don Tabaek (the 265-metre tall mountain behind my home) and so I'm sure we'll get some rain later. The weather here may not be as obliging as Camelot, where "The rain may never fall till after sundown", but the rainy season is still a lot less depressing and uncomfortable as the name might suggest. So don't be fooled — try it for yourself, and whilst you can forget a raincoat (it's never that cool), don't forget your umbrella!

Thailand: Great for me but not for Tesco!

There is a Thai proverb that talks about someone who "Dies to spite the graveyard" (ตายประชดป่าช้า). Clearly, this is the local equivalent of 'cutting off your nose to spite your face', but sadly, it seems that the apparently well-educated apparatchiks in Bangkok never learned either phrase, as they are working hard to make sure that Thailand should no longer be considered one of the Asian Tiger economies.

The latest example of this masochistic trend is a new retail law which is designed to limit or even stop the number and size of so-called 'foreign' retail giants. (Remember that even the mighty Tesco MUST have a Thai partner.) Now it would be easy to blame this nonsensical law on the military-installed government, but it was being discussed in government circles long before the tanks moved onto the streets of Bangkok last year. What's more, this law isn't an isolated example -- it is just another symptom of a growing xenophobic trend, highlighted by the government's move to limit foreigners to holding no more than 49% of the shares or voting rights in Thai companies. Rather than sacrifice control of their company like that, many foreign businessmen have abandoned plans to invest in Thailand, or prefer to work illegally -- thereby costing the government millions in lost tax income!

In case you haven't heard, the new retail law allows for local governments to deny permission for 'foreign' companies like Tesco and France's Carrefour to open new supermarkets, thereby denying thousands of Thais a job and yet again sacrificing huge tax revenue. Why are they acting so masochistically? Well, the official line is that the government is responding to complaints from small store owners, who complain that the big retailers are driving them out of business. Does this mean that they will close railway lines if bus companies complain? Or close down power stations if candle-makers present a grievance? I doubt it. You see, the railways and candle makers aren't foreign.

Now make no mistake. I still think Thailand is a great place to live, especially if you are a retiree. It is also great for holidays, even long-term holidays. However, as a place to do business, it leaves a lot to be desired. Entrepreneurs should leave Thailand off their itinerary, as the neighbouring countries offer much more promising opportunities -- especially as some (like Malaysia) are making the most of Bangkok's lack of practicality and encouraging foreign businesses. Thailand's loss -- or should I say, losses -- are other countries gain!

There is a good side to all this, of course. The growing lack of business sense in government circles here is bound to hurt the economy, either limiting economic growth or even encouraging a decline. This will make Thailand much poorer, thereby making it cheaper for overseas folk. Holidays here will become even more attractive and so will property. Long-term visits and retirement will become much more affordable to many more foreigners. 'Every cloud has a silver lining', ah? Maybe that's what the government wants, is working toward. If that's what you think, then you don't know Thailand …